According to the United Nations, about 80 percent of the world’s food is produced by family farms, so the impact of climate change on agriculture could have consequences that reach far beyond individual farmers and their families. Unless humans take significant steps to change course and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the situation could continue to worsen. No one knows for sure what impact this will have on future food supplies, but models from the International Food Policy Research Institute estimate that global corn production could decline by 24 percent by 2050.

Challenges facing African farmers

Farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable, in part because they rely heavily on rainfed agriculture instead of irrigation. In central Tanzania, the rainy season typically lasts from November to April, after which the weather becomes too dry to support crop production. Each year, farmers must produce enough food from their annual harvest to feed their families until the next season. In favorable years, farmers have enough grain left over to sell as income, but when the harvest fails, families often experience the annual “hunger season,” a time of skipping meals and replacing them until the next harvest.

Each year has its own challenges, but thanks to climate change, farmers now face greater difficulties due to three main threats:

Extreme weather: Unstable weather is a sign of climate change, and it can manifest itself in many ways: droughts, floods, severe storms, heat waves, cooling, and frost. Extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent as the Earth’s atmosphere warms. Farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa are already feeling the effects – in 2016, the region experienced the worst drought in decades, which sharply reduced crops and left many families hungry.

Pests and diseases: Changes in temperature and humidity conditions can facilitate the migration of crop diseases and pests to new areas. Recently, the bed borer, an invasive caterpillar that can devastate maize crops if left unchecked, spread in sub-Saharan Africa. We still don’t know exactly what caused this outbreak, but some scientists have linked its spread to climate change.
Higher temperatures in the long term: Average global temperatures are expected to rise over the coming decades, which could lead to desertification and reduced crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa. If global temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius by 2100, corn yields in some African countries are likely to decline by more than 20 percent, according to the study.

What will happen next

Increased access to better agricultural inputs and agricultural training can help improve yields and sometimes mitigate the impact of extreme weather.

While the future may look uncertain, it is not too late to change course. Governments, institutions, and private sector groups should incorporate support for smallholders into their broader efforts to combat climate change. Providing farmers with access to the necessary financing, tools and training will help ensure that millions of rural families can sustainably harvest crops for years to come.

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Residents of these areas – the poorest neighborhoods of coastal cities and low-lying islands – are most vulnerable to the adverse effects of the planet’s changing climate and have little or no ability to mobilize the necessary resources to adapt to these effects, a recently released report found. They live in a world where climate change is leading to increasing adverse impacts that will threaten food supplies in sub-Saharan Africa, arable land and water resources in South Asia and South-East Asia over the next three decades, and extreme weather events threaten their homes and lives.

The effects of climate change are already being felt in different parts of the world today, with only a 0.8°C increase in global average temperature compared to the pre-industrial era. Unless strong global action is taken, many of us will feel the more severe effects of a 2°C rise in global average temperature (which will happen in 20-30 years), and by the end of this century temperatures will have risen by 4°C above pre-industrial levels.

Sub-Saharan Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa, according to the researchers, the main problem will be food supply, due to the presence of hazards such as droughts, floods, rainfall variations.

According to the researchers, if global average temperatures rise by 1.5-2°C as a result of droughts and the expansion of drylands, the area under maize, millet and sorghum cultivation will be reduced by 40-80% by the 2030s-2040s.

According to numerous studies, a 4°C increase in global average temperature, which could occur around the 2080s, could reduce annual rainfall by 30% in southern Africa and increase rainfall in eastern Africa. Changes in rangeland ecosystems, in particular a decrease in grass savanna with an increase in sparse forest savanna as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions, could reduce cattle feed supplies.

Southeast Asia

In South-East Asia, coastal cities will suffer from the adverse effects of climate change.

A 30-centimeter rise in sea level, which could occur by 2040 unless vigorous action is taken, will lead to widespread flooding of major cities and saltwater flooding of lowland crops, leading to crop failure. The Mekong Delta area of Vietnam, one of the world’s rice-growing centers, will be particularly affected by sea-level rise. A sea level rise of 30 centimeters will result in the loss of about 11% of agricultural production. At the same time, the intensity of storms is likely to increase.

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