As coastal cities in Africa and Asia expand, their poorest inhabitants find themselves at the very edge of livable land, in areas most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Spontaneous settlements are springing up along riverbanks and in low-lying areas with inadequate drainage facilities, inadequate public services, and no protection from storm surges, sea-level rise and flooding.
Residents of these areas – the poorest neighborhoods of coastal cities and low-lying islands – are most vulnerable to the adverse effects of the planet’s changing climate and have little or no ability to mobilize the necessary resources to adapt to these effects, a recently released report found. They live in a world where climate change is leading to increasing adverse impacts that will threaten food supplies in sub-Saharan Africa, arable land and water resources in South Asia and South-East Asia over the next three decades, and extreme weather events threaten their homes and lives.
The effects of climate change are already being felt in different parts of the world today, with only a 0.8°C increase in global average temperature compared to the pre-industrial era. Unless strong global action is taken, many of us will feel the more severe effects of a 2°C rise in global average temperature (which will happen in 20-30 years), and by the end of this century temperatures will have risen by 4°C above pre-industrial levels.
Sub-Saharan Africa
In sub-Saharan Africa, according to the researchers, the main problem will be food supply, due to the presence of hazards such as droughts, floods, rainfall variations.
According to the researchers, if global average temperatures rise by 1.5-2°C as a result of droughts and the expansion of drylands, the area under maize, millet and sorghum cultivation will be reduced by 40-80% by the 2030s-2040s.
According to numerous studies, a 4°C increase in global average temperature, which could occur around the 2080s, could reduce annual rainfall by 30% in southern Africa and increase rainfall in eastern Africa. Changes in rangeland ecosystems, in particular a decrease in grass savanna with an increase in sparse forest savanna as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions, could reduce cattle feed supplies.
Southeast Asia
In South-East Asia, coastal cities will suffer from the adverse effects of climate change.
A 30-centimeter rise in sea level, which could occur by 2040 unless vigorous action is taken, will lead to widespread flooding of major cities and saltwater flooding of lowland crops, leading to crop failure. The Mekong Delta area of Vietnam, one of the world’s rice-growing centers, will be particularly affected by sea-level rise. A sea level rise of 30 centimeters will result in the loss of about 11% of agricultural production. At the same time, the intensity of storms is likely to increase.