Agriculture has always been heavily dependent on the weather, and farmers have needed a constant mix of sun, warmth, and rain to reliably produce the food on which all of humanity depends for survival. Now, these once predictable cycles of cultivation are threatened by climate change, and smallholders like Upendo are on the front lines.
According to the United Nations, about 80 percent of the world’s food is produced by family farms, so the impact of climate change on agriculture could have consequences that reach far beyond individual farmers and their families. Unless humans take significant steps to change course and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the situation could continue to worsen. No one knows for sure what impact this will have on future food supplies, but models from the International Food Policy Research Institute estimate that global corn production could decline by 24 percent by 2050.
Challenges facing African farmers
Farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable, in part because they rely heavily on rainfed agriculture instead of irrigation. In central Tanzania, the rainy season typically lasts from November to April, after which the weather becomes too dry to support crop production. Each year, farmers must produce enough food from their annual harvest to feed their families until the next season. In favorable years, farmers have enough grain left over to sell as income, but when the harvest fails, families often experience the annual “hunger season,” a time of skipping meals and replacing them until the next harvest.
Each year has its own challenges, but thanks to climate change, farmers now face greater difficulties due to three main threats:
Extreme weather: Unstable weather is a sign of climate change, and it can manifest itself in many ways: droughts, floods, severe storms, heat waves, cooling, and frost. Extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent as the Earth’s atmosphere warms. Farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa are already feeling the effects – in 2016, the region experienced the worst drought in decades, which sharply reduced crops and left many families hungry.
Pests and diseases: Changes in temperature and humidity conditions can facilitate the migration of crop diseases and pests to new areas. Recently, the bed borer, an invasive caterpillar that can devastate maize crops if left unchecked, spread in sub-Saharan Africa. We still don’t know exactly what caused this outbreak, but some scientists have linked its spread to climate change.
Higher temperatures in the long term: Average global temperatures are expected to rise over the coming decades, which could lead to desertification and reduced crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa. If global temperatures rise by 4 degrees Celsius by 2100, corn yields in some African countries are likely to decline by more than 20 percent, according to the study.
What will happen next
Increased access to better agricultural inputs and agricultural training can help improve yields and sometimes mitigate the impact of extreme weather.
While the future may look uncertain, it is not too late to change course. Governments, institutions, and private sector groups should incorporate support for smallholders into their broader efforts to combat climate change. Providing farmers with access to the necessary financing, tools and training will help ensure that millions of rural families can sustainably harvest crops for years to come.